Phenology is one of the most immediate responses to global climate change, but data limitations have made examining phenology patterns across greater taxonomic, spatial and temporal scales challenging. One significant opportunity is leveraging rapidly increasing data resources from digitized museum specimens and community science platforms, but this assumes reliable statistical methods are available to estimate phenology using presence‐only data. Estimating the onset or offset of key events is especially difficult with incidental data, as lower data densities occur towards the tails of an abundance distribution. The Weibull distribution has been recognized as an appropriate distribution to estimate phenology based on presence‐only data, but Weibull‐informed estimators are only available for onset and offset. We describe the mathematical framework for a new Weibull‐parameterized estimator of phenology appropriate for any percentile of a distribution and make it available in an Results show a general pattern of decay in performance of estimates when moving from mean estimates towards the tails of the seasonal abundance curve, suggesting that onset and offset continue to be the most difficult phenometrics to estimate. However, with simple phenologies and enough observations, our newly developed estimator can provide useful onset and offset estimates. This is especially true for the start of the season, when incidental observations may be more common. Our simulation demonstrates the potential of generating accurate phenological estimates from presence‐only data and guides the best use of estimators. The estimator that we developed, phenesse, is the least biased and has the lowest estimation error for onset estimates under most simulated and empirical conditions examined, improving the robustness of these estimates for phenological research.
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Abstract r package,phenesse . We use simulations and empirical data on open flower timing and first arrival of monarch butterflies to quantify the accuracy of our estimator and other commonly used phenological estimators for 10 phenological metrics: onset, mean and offset dates, as well as the 1st, 5th, 10th, 50th, 90th, 95th and 99th percentile dates. Root mean squared errors and mean bias of the phenological estimators were calculated for different patterns of abundance and observation processes. -
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Abstract Information about the spatial distribution of species lies at the heart of many important questions in ecology. Logistical limitations and collection biases, however, limit the availability of such data at ecologically relevant scales. Remotely sensed information can alleviate some of these concerns, but presents challenges associated with accurate species identification and limited availability of field data for validation, especially in high diversity ecosystems such as tropical forests.
Recent advances in machine learning offer a promising and cost‐efficient approach for gathering a large amount of species distribution data from aerial photographs. Here, we propose a novel machine learning framework, artificial perceptual learning (APL), to tackle the problem of weakly supervised pixel‐level mapping of tree species in forests. Challenges arise from limited availability of ground labels for tree species, lack of precise segmentation of tree canopies and misalignment between visible canopies in the aerial images and stem locations associated with ground labels. The proposed APL framework addresses these challenges by constructing a workflow using state‐of‐the‐art machine learning algorithms.
We develop and illustrate the proposed framework by implementing a fine‐grain mapping of three species, the palm
Prestoea acuminata and the tree speciesCecropia schreberiana andManilkara bidentata , over a 5,000‐ha area of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico. These large‐scale maps are based on unlabelled high‐resolution aerial images of unsegmented tree canopies. Misaligned ground‐based labels, available for <1% of these images, serve as the only weak supervision. APL performance is evaluated using ground‐based labels and high‐quality human segmentation using Amazon Mechanical Turk, and compared to a basic workflow that relies solely on labelled images.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Intersection over Union (IoU) metrics demonstrate that APL substantially outperforms the basic workflow and attains human‐level cognitive economy, with 50‐fold time savings. For the palm and
C. schreberiana , the APL framework has high pixelwise accuracy and IoU with reference to human segmentations. ForM .bidentata , APL predictions are congruent with ground‐based labels. Our approach shows great potential for leveraging existing data from global forest plot networks coupled with aerial imagery to map tree species at ecologically meaningful spatial scales. -
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Abstract Population dynamics play a central role in the historical and current development of fundamental and applied ecological science. The nascent culture of open data promises to increase the value of population dynamics studies to the field of ecology. However, synthesis of population data is constrained by the difficulty in identifying relevant datasets, by the heterogeneity of available data and by access to raw (as opposed to aggregated or derived) observations.
To obviate these issues, we built a relational database,
popler , and itsR client, the library popler.popler accommodates the vast majority of population data under a common structure, and without the need for aggregating raw observations. The popler R library is designed for users unfamiliar with the structure of the database and with the SQL language. ThisR library allows users to identify, download, explore and cite datasets salient to their needs.We implemented popler as a PostgreSQL instance, where we stored population data originated by the United States Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. Our focus on the US LTER data aims to leverage the potential of this vast open data resource. The database currently contains 305 datasets from 25 LTER sites.
popler is designed to accommodate automatic updates of existing datasets, and to accommodate additional datasets from LTER as well as non‐LTER studies.The combination of the online database and the
R library popler is a resource for data synthesis efforts in population ecology. The common structure ofpopler simplifies comparative analyses, and the availability of raw data confers flexibility in data analysis. The popler R library maximizes these opportunities by providing a user‐friendly interface to the online database.
